What will this Respiratory Virus Season Look Like?

October 20, 2025

We are just a few weeks away from the start of cold and flu season in Pennsylvania.

While it’s too early to tell how severe this season will be, the nation’s public health leaders are projecting this season’s peak for COVID-19, the flu, and RSV hospitalizations could be similar to last year, but there are a few variables to watch.

“Combined peak hospitalization burden depends on the timing as well as the magnitude of each disease peak during the respiratory season,” the CDC noted in a recent report on its modeling.

Here’s what you need to know:

• COVID-19:  The CDC’s modeling indicates weekly hospitalization for COVID-19 will be similar to or higher than the 2024–2025 season.
  • There are several considerations that will determine the severity of the season, including if a variant emerges that evades vaccine protection and vaccine uptake.
• The flu:  The agency predicts a moderate flu season across all ages, but it will depend on circulating subtypes, population immunity, and vaccine effectiveness.
  • Last year was a high-severity season across all ages. The CDC has not recorded consecutive high-severity seasons since it began assessing seasonal severity during 2003-2004.
• Important note:  The flu vaccines prevented about 240,000 hospitalizations last year, the CDC noted. This was especially important among people 65 and older.
• RSV:  The agency predicts weekly RSV hospitalization rate across all age groups will be similar to the 2024-2025 season.
  • In recent years, new treatments for RSV have become available for infants (monoclonal antibodies and maternal vaccination) and older adults (vaccination).
  • RSV’s national peak tends to happen in late December or early January, which can be earlier than the peaks for flu and COVID-19.
• Quotable:   “It is difficult to predict the magnitude and timing of peak activity for each disease, as well as how disease-specific timing might overlap,” the CDC report notes. “Experts agree that some level of overlap in peak hospitalization burden may occur.”

Additional information about the CDC’s modeling is available online.