Can Technology Predict the Next Flood in Your Community?

How emergency managers can use technology, mapping to forecast the next big flood

January 02, 2024

Flooding has always been one of the primary causes of property damage, and the challenge is only growing.

Recently, we have seen flooding occur in areas that had never dealt with it before. There are plenty of potential threats to monitor, such as additional moisture in the air that it is causing more major storms. Beyond atmospheric changes, the expansion of new residential or commercial developments can create new flood-prone areas. Even a warm-up after a snowfall should ignite your preparedness instincts as we watch all that snow quickly melt away.

We won’t always get a warning when a flash flood hits our community, so we must use all the tools at our disposal to be prepared. For general knowledge about flooding, I recommend visiting Ready PA.

What’s next?

Forecasters have always struggled to know in real-time where flooding is occurring, and how much flooding to anticipate, but there is good news for emergency managers.

Recently the National Weather Service (NWS) unveiled three new tools to help understand where, when, and how much flooding we can expect in a region. The mapping tools will gradually be available throughout the U.S., but were launched initially in eastern Texas, central Pennsylvania, and other parts of the northeast. They are:

• National Water Model Hourly Analysis showing flood inundation extent based on the National Water Model hourly streamflow analysis.
• National Water Model 5-Day Maximum Flood Inundation Forecast showing the maximum inundation extent over the next five days derived from the National Water Model streamflow forecast.
• River Forecast Center 5-Day Maximum Flood Inundation Forecast providing a five-day forecast of flood inundation extent based on the streamflow predictions from an NWS River Forecast Center.

Advances in technology are improving our ability to predict where flooding will occur, and the best part is we have access to this data as well. These NWS tools provide near-real-time, high-resolution, street-level visualization showing where, when, and how much flood waters are forecast.

You can monitor these tools during longer storms or when flash flooding is likely to occur to help you get ready for your next emergency. It also can help identify areas around your campus and in your community that could be affected. This information can support your staff getting to and from work and ambulances to get to and from your campus.

This new mapping is still experimental and is only rolled out in select areas, but we should all follow closely. After all, we will take any information we can get to better protect our patients, families, and communities during emergencies.

To read more and to view and save these new maps, visit the NWS website.

For questions about flood emergencies and preparation, contact me. or HAP’s Emergency Management team for more information.