KFF Analysis: Millions Could Lose Coverage during End of Continuous Medicaid Enrollment

April 28, 2023

Anywhere between 8 and 24 million people could lose coverage following the end of continuous enrollment in the Medicaid program, according to a new Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) survey.

Released this week, the KFF’s survey of state Medicaid and CHIP officials reviewed their approach to the unwinding of continuous enrollment—a pandemic-era protection that prevented states from removing beneficiaries off the rolls.

“The unwinding of the continuous enrollment provision will play out differently across the states based on policy choices states have made and variation in their administrative infrastructures,” the survey notes.

Among the key takeaways:

• A wide variance:  The number of Medicaid beneficiaries who could be disenrolled varies widely from state to state, from 8 percent to 28 percent of enrollees.
• Pennsylvania projections:  Pennsylvania’s disenrollments could range from anywhere between 320,100 people to 998,400 people.
• Coverage gains:  Continuous enrollment led to growth of about 23.1 million beneficiaries nationally. This next phase of Medicaid redeterminations could reverse more than half of those coverage gains.
• Bottom line:  State-by-state redetermination policies will play a strong role in the transition away from continuous enrollment.
• Quotable:  “State efforts to provide outreach and enrollment assistance can help ensure that those who remain eligible for Medicaid—an unknown share of current enrollees—are able to retain coverage, and that those who are no longer eligible transition to other coverage,” the report said.

With the end of continuous enrollment, DHS—in partnership with provider organizations, including HAP—has developed resources to help providers share important information with patients.

DHS’s stakeholder toolkit includes printable education materials, scripts for conversations with patients, and digital assets, such as social media posts and website graphics.

The toolkit is available online.